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2023 WAS A Year Full of Challenges and Changes. Looking Back on this year, in order to cost the high inflation, the feedral reserve continue to raise, pushing the interest rate to the Highest Level in 22 Years.Federal reserve has brought negative spillaver effects to the global eConomy, and the risk of eConomic doublen has increased.

However, at the last increne meeting in 2023, The Federal Reserve Office, ATION that the Federal Reserve and Other Major Central Banks Will Start to Cut Internet Rates As Early as theFirst quars of next year.

Looking forward to 2024, Will The Previous Tight Monetary Policy FURTHER IMPACT The Global Economy? In the face of the unied Fragile RecoVile Emic EMIC ERA and Stubborn Inflation, what kind of situation will the global market development present? What kind ofOpportunities and Risks Will The Expecture of Loose Monetary Policy Bring to Risk Assets and Emerging Markets?

NATIONAL Business Daily (HereinaFTER Referred to As NBD) Interview Torsten Slok, Chief Economist of Apollo Global Management, and Aninda Mitra, Head of Asia Macro a ND Investment Strategy at New York Mellon.

Nbd: in your options, what are the main challenges faciling the global economy in 2024? What are your extens and Outlook for the Global Economy next year? Can the GL. Obal Economy Avoid A "Hard Landing"?

Torsten SLOK: Overall, The Challenge Facing the Global Economy Next Year is that the Impact of Long-Term High Interes in Developed Counter, IES, and Banks Will Gradually Emerge.

We exten the global economy to kill down next year, and developed countries will face the risk of eConomic Recession. Mains high, so inchetes will remain high for a long timeJaipur Investment. However, the asian economy will strongRemain Strong Next year and Will be Immune from the Impact of the Global Economic Recession.

Aninda Mitra: Our Basic Forecast is that by 2024, The Differentiation of the Global Economy Will Continue. Under This Macro SCENARIO (We Think the Probability is 50%) , Inflation in some Major Global Economies Will Fall.Likely to exceient a so -called "soft landing", but the Euro Zone and the uk has always began to fall, Economic Soft Landing Refers to a Smooth Fall Back to a Modrate Growth RangeAfter the economic cycle enters a downward phase, without causion large-scale default and unnedloyment.)))))

We have Recently Reduced the Probability of a "Inevitable Recession" in the Global Economy to 40%. ORMalization of Supply-Side Drivers Will Play a Greter Role in Achieving The 2% Inflation TargetThen, then

NBD: Globally, The Inflation of Many Economies’ Peaked in the Autumn of 2022. In the case of generalrally, s strong shows a download trend in 2023. In your opinion, Will the Inflation of the MainDeveloped Markets Continue to Normalize NEXT Year and Move Closer to the 2% Target of the Major Central Banks? Why? WHY?

Torsten SLOK: SINCE The Autumn of 2022, Global Overall Inflation by Steadily DeClining, Mainly Due to Interest Rate Hikes, Falling Food and Energy Prices, and E Gradual Normalization of the Supply Chain. As the Global Tightening Monetary Policy Continues to Play a RestricTiveRole, Overall Inflant Will Continue to normalize, but this requires a certain amount of time, and the "last mile" of Central Banks’ Fight Against Inflace be the most different.

Aninda Mitra: In Fact, We Doubt Wile Will Be A "Perfect Disinflation (Immaculating Disinflation)" SCENARIO NEXT Year, that is, the inflation of all major ES Quickly Drops to the 2% Target Level with Causing Any Loss to Economic Output.The Probility of This SCENARIO is only 10%.

We Believe that it will take more time for inflation to return to the 2% target level, Mainly BeCAUSE: The Growth Rate of Nominal and Real Wages is Still THE usual 2% inflation; The Labor Market in the United States and JAPAN ISStill Quite Tight, which can be seen from the job vacation Survey. This Will Cautracs in Developed Countries to be more hawkish the increasingl Y Moderate Market Expectations.

We believe that the global economy will slow down 2024, which may put inflation on a download "slide" and move closer to the major core bank. Wever, Except for the Euro Zone, We Expert that Other Economies WillNot reaching the 2% inflation target next year, unless there is any unexpected economic download.

Nbd: if the information of the main development economies controls to decline next year, accounting to the "Phillips Curve" theory, this will put upward presentite on the Ir UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, Will this make the economies face risks agin?New Delhi Investment

Torsten SLOK: Yes. Becaue the lag effect of monetary Policy will have have a neigatic impact on the eConomy, The UNEMPLOYAMENT RATE Will, SO EVEN I F inflation Continues to Fall, These Developed Economies will not overheat.

Aninda Mitra: Throughout 2024, The Risk of a "Non-Linear Trade-Off" Between Inflation and UNEMPLOYMENT Will Inded Rise. DEALING With the Lagging Effects of Policy Tightening, and the Actual Policy Interest Rate Has Turned Positive andHas Reacked a New High Since Around 2005. This Means that Although The Setting of Restrictive Monetary Policy Is Reasonable, Most Central Banks Must Be Flexible to Resp. OND, and Any Policy Adjustments in the Later Period May Eventual Exceed the Current Market Expectations (Global Monetary PolicyMay Soon Be Relaxed).

NBD: At present, The Market General Expects that the Major Central Bank by the Federal Reserve Will a Rate Cut Cycle TART To CUT Internet Rates Next Year, Making the Financial Environment Loose, what doesThis mean for the global economy?

Torsten SLOK: If the main Central Banks Start to Cut Interest Rates, this will have a positive impact on the global eConomy, Risk Assets, and dueOoping Countries.

Aninda Mitra: We Believe that the peak of the policy forst rate and monetary easing means that the dollar will show a time Eans that Long-Term Interest Rates Will Go Further Download. It is Certain that the Slowdown inDeveloped Markets and the Rise in Actual Borrowing Costs Will Affect Weak Corporate Credit.

However, Outside of Developed Countries, The Peak of USDEREST RATES and the Dollar Should Ease The Global FINANCIAL SITUATION and CREATES for A. D in Risk Assets. However, The Main Risk Associated with this is that if the page of interestCentral Banks Such as the European Central Bank is Earlier or Larger than the Market Expector, this may care the dollar to stringthen agian.

NBD: Becaue the Market has begun to excect the feedral reserve to cut intertes next year, the dollar has rencently. E -Tarts to Cut Interest Rates Next Year, what impact will the fall of the dollar haveOn Emerging Market Assets? What Opportunities and Challenges Will Emerging Markets Face Next year?

Torsten Slok: The Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cut Means the PEAK of the Dollar and the Positive Prospects of Emerting Markets, Because this Will Makes Import. TED Goods of Emerging Markets Cheaper and Cheaper, Trade More Balanced, and Capital Flows Will Help the Financial System of the Financial System of the Financial System of the Financial System ofEmerging Markets and Stimulating Economic Growth.

However, there are also challenges. In Addition to Geopopolical unitedRTAINTY and Inflation (For Example, Food and Energy PriceS Are Becoming More and more Expensive) , High Interest Rates Maintained by Developed Economies for A Long Time Are Also Major Risk to Emerging Markets.

Aninda Mitra: The Market Never Guarentees Anything. But overall, we are optimistic about the properning Markets in 2024. d the impact of the Federal Reserve’s Large-SCALE TIGHTENING of Monetary Policy.ASEAN FIVE, India, and Mexico) Also Benefit from the Slowdown to Stable Rotation of the Global Supply Chain, Which Has PromPty Capital Inflows AN d boostly emblanement and economic grouph.

Editor:

Hyderabad Investment